I have been betting for many years and have probably done pretty much everything wrong that you can do wrong. As a result, I’ve won a few supersuper combi bets with odds beyond 15 or 20, but I’ve lost a lot more. In addition, I had a few nice winning streaks, which I then destroyed again with overconfidence. The fact that I got out pretty much at par over a few years was probably more luck than good sense. But with wettstrategie.at I will now also change my way of betting and discipline it successively.
In my first post I would like to go into the very first basics that should describe how to bet in the long run.
CHOICE OF SPORTS AND GAMES
In all situations in life, it is safer to focus on the things you know how to do. The great Ernst Happel once said: “In life, you must always do what you master. Because that is the easiest thing. If you don’t master it, then it gets complicated.” And it’s the same with sports betting. Be honest with yourself and admit which sport you really don’t know at all. If your heart belongs only to soccer, you won’t make a profit in basketball in the long run. And vice versa. So limit yourself to the sports you think you know something about and which you can observe and analyze yourself.
And within these sports it is advisable to narrow down in which areas your know-how-technical strengths and weaknesses lie. If you follow every match of the German Bundesliga, know the players, understand the tactical alignment of the teams and maybe know a week before the next match who is suspended or injured, it is more advisable to bet on matches of this very league than on matches from leagues you never follow.
ANALYZE GAME, UNDERSTAND ODDS
If you decide to bet on a particular soccer match, you should analyze it first before hastily making a bet that you will later annoy yourself over. Consult the official club sites of the two opponents, check sports sites for cancellations or special circumstances. And then make your decision. Try to analyze the upcoming duel, not the general statistics of the two clubs. Certainly, the last results of a club, the last direct duels or the standings are factors that should not be neglected – but they should not be the only reasons to place a bet.
Also, when you place a bet, you should always think carefully about the odds. If you think that a bookmaker has set the odds too high, then you should risk a bet. Always remember that you are betting against a bookmaker. Analyze the game and play bookmaker yourself in your mind. What odds would you give to a particular bet? If you give an odds of 1.7 to the home victory of team XY and the bookmaker offers 2.1, you should risk a tip.
From experience I also advise you to stay away from mini odds like 1.05, 1.10 or 1.20. Betting on such supposedly safe bets will do you more harm than good in the long run. A little milkmaid calculation: If you get odds of 1.15 for a Barcelona home win against Almería, you would have to bet about 870€ to make 100€ net profit. That might go well relatively often, but at some point it doesn’t go well and then a high stake is gone, the ratio between risk and sense is simply not given here in my opinion. Even Barcelona does not win every home game for which bookmakers give odds in said thinness – the 0:2 defeat of Guardiola’s eleven in the fall of 2010 against Hercules Alicante is a good example of this. And it happens to EVERY big club from time to time. For sure.
SINGLE BETS GOOD, COMBINED BETS NOT SO GOOD
If you want to make a profit consistently, you should definitely play single bets for the most part. I know it’s tempting at 1.85 odds, where you’re pretty sure, to add a “sure” play to turn that @1.85 into a @2.20, for example. Stifle it. Take the @1.85 and be happy when you win it, instead of being upset that it wasn’t a @2.20. I’ve made that mistake not infrequently and bitterly regretted it afterwards.
One example of how to get pretty much everything wrong that I’ve described so far was about a bet I placed in the late summer of 2010. I worked out a bet very precisely and guessed a home win for the Italian second division team Grosseto. The odds on this were 2.0, but I wanted to increase those odds and added the women’s team from Brøndby Copenhagen. I got odds of 1.2 for the home win of the highly favored Danes, which resulted in total odds of 2.4. Logically what happened: I got greedy, the @2.0 became too low for me, so I hooked the first best match I found, even though I didn’t know the teams, didn’t scrutinize the match for a second and trusted that the Brøndby ladies are a little Barcelona in their league. Grosseto won confidently and the Brøndby ladies lost – stake gone….
Of course, this is not to say that it is completely wrong to combine bets. Also with combination bets you can achieve respectable profits with measure and aim. But it counts what I described before: You should always think carefully about which games you want to bet on and whether the odds actually have a certain value. Hands off, however, from combination bets that consist of four, five, six or even more games. In order to make a Bundesliga conference more exciting and amusing, you can allow yourself to have fun – but in the long run, you won’t win anything with such monster constructs.
In recent years, live betting has become increasingly popular. This offers highly interesting opportunities for bettors, as bookmakers cannot always react correctly to the course of the game within fractions of a second and recognize trends too late. With innovative tools like Overlyzer, I keep an eye on live trends from more than 800 leagues and competitions, and thanks to the extensive filter functions, I have a decisive advantage when placing my bet. Live betting in combination with Overlyzer is something every bettor should have in their arsenal, as there is currently no better betting strategy on the market.
NEVER BET IMPULSIVELY
You will win many bets in the course of your betting life, but you will surely lose some as well. If you win a bet, be happy about it – if you lose a bet, don’t be angry. Trouble in betting brings trouble. One of the biggest problems of all gamblers is impulsiveness after losing bets. If the bet is lost, it is lost. Never compulsively try to get the lost money back immediately with a new bet. In most cases this goes wrong. Consider each bet you play independently from the next one. You don’t win a bet to play another one and you don’t play a bet because you lost one before.
NEVER BET MORE THAN YOU HAVE
The most important thing of all: never bet more than you have. I think this sentence should be enough, everyone will understand it. More detailed analysis about bankroll management, amount of bets etc. will come soon!